Research in progress

Trust in vaccines: Lessons from Japan’s Okinawa Prefecture

Okinawa has very high levels of trust in healthcare and scientists, but also has the lowest COVID-19 vaccination rates in Japan. This research finds that structural barriers—such as logistical challenges, geographic isolation, and healthcare infrastructure limitations—significantly hinder vaccine uptake. Although Okinawans generally believe in vaccine effectiveness, they show strong preferences for medical autonomy, with low support for compulsory vaccination.

The analysis shows that trust in government negatively correlates with vaccine uptake, suggesting scepticism towards centralised control. Interestingly, higher allocations of the Moderna vaccine, easier to distribute and store, were positively associated with increased vaccine uptake, though Okinawa received only average allocations despite logistical challenges.

The findings highlight the need for targeted vaccine distribution strategies that address structural hurdles, especially in remote or island regions, to improve vaccination rates. Policymakers are encouraged to prioritise vaccines with simpler logistics (like Moderna) and enhance healthcare infrastructure to overcome geographical and logistical challenges in vaccination campaigns.

• Steven Pickering, Yuki Yanai, Martin Ejnar Hansen, Yosuke Sunahara.

Trust in Parliament

Based on surveys conducted across England between July 2022 and November 2023, we found that people's trust in Parliament is shaped more by underlying social factors, such as age, education, and political identity, rather than by short-term economic issues or specific government actions. Trust in Parliament closely relates to trust in government leadership and notably fell sharply following events like the mini-budget fiasco of September 2022. Interestingly, despite the Conservative government in power at the time, those identifying as politically right-wing reported significantly lower trust. Older, more educated, and higher social-grade respondents generally trusted Parliament more, while younger people's trust fluctuated noticeably in response to leadership changes. Trust varied regionally—highest in London, and lower in the North and Midlands. South Asian respondents showed higher trust in MPs, whereas Black respondents’ trust notably declined after the mini-budget crisis. Overall, these findings highlight that trust in Parliament is influenced more by individual characteristics and significant political events than by general economic conditions. We will extend our study by comparing these findings with data from Japan to understand better how trust in Parliament varies across different national contexts.

• Steve Pickering, Yosuke Sunahara, Thomas Scotto, Martin Ejnar Hansen, Dorothy Yen, Jason Reifler, Han Dorussen.

Trust in Public Service News Providers: A comparison of the BBC and NHK

This study compares public trust in news provided by two public broadcasters—the BBC in the UK and NHK in Japan—using surveys conducted over 19 months. It looks at how trust in these broadcasters is affected by factors like age, education, political beliefs, and general trust levels. The research found that while the BBC enjoys high trust similar to traditional news sources, this trust is heavily divided along political lines, with Conservative voters expressing much lower confidence. On the other hand, NHK generally has lower overall trust compared to other media in Japan, but its trust levels are less politically divided, with supporters of the ruling LDP party actually trusting NHK slightly more.

The difference in trust levels between the BBC and NHK reflects their distinct ways of operating. The BBC, funded through license fees and known for its editorial independence, regularly faces political criticism, particularly from right-wing politicians. NHK, funded through a similar subscription system but directly supervised by Japan’s parliament, experiences fewer sharp political divisions but is often perceived as less independent.

The findings suggest public broadcasters face significant challenges in maintaining public trust as the media landscape changes, especially with the growing influence of digital platforms and social media. Public trust in broadcasters is shaped by how closely they are perceived to be connected to politics and government. Understanding these dynamics is important for public broadcasters aiming to remain trusted and relevant sources of news.

• Steven Pickering, Yosuke Sunahara, Martin Ejnar Hansen.

Trust, healthcare and ethnic inequality

Trust in healthcare providers significantly varies by ethnicity, with ethnic minorities expressing greater distrust toward general practitioners and NHS ethical standards. These respondents also perceive higher levels of discrimination based on ethnicity and country of origin, impacting their views on healthcare quality. However, perceptions of NHS competence were consistent across ethnic groups.

Ethnic minority respondents highlighted specific concerns around communication, ethical standards, and structural discrimination affecting care quality. Addressing these disparities through targeted interventions, especially in communication and ethical transparency, is crucial for improving healthcare trust and satisfaction among ethnic minorities.

• Steven Pickering, Martin Ejnar Hansen, Han Dorussen, Jason Reifler, Thomas Scotto, Yosuke Sunahara, Dorothy Yen.

The Price of Trust: Deciphering How Inflation and Interest Rates Influence Trust in Government

Recently, governments across many democracies have struggled electorally, largely because voters have blamed them for economic troubles following the pandemic, particularly rising inflation. Using monthly surveys from England collected between July 2022 and November 2023, we examined how inflation and interest rates affected people’s trust in government and the Prime Minister. Surprisingly, our findings suggest the relationship isn't straightforward: while higher inflation itself has only a weak negative link to trust, rapid increases in inflation strongly undermine trust. In contrast, higher interest rates—typically viewed negatively due to their cost to households—are associated positively with trust in both government and the Prime Minister. This counterintuitive finding might reflect public approval of visible actions being taken to tackle inflation, even if those measures are painful. Overall, our results highlight that what truly damages political trust is not inflation or interest rates themselves, but rapid instability in prices. Understanding these subtle relationships is important, because trust underpins governments’ ability to manage crises effectively.

• Martin Ejnar Hansen, Steven Pickering, Han Dorussen, Jason Reifler, Thomas Scotto, Yosuke Sunahara, Dorothy Yen.

Global trust, local context: Public trust in international organisations in the UK and Japan

Public trust in international organisations like the United Nations (UN) and the World Health Organization (WHO) matters because it affects how effectively these bodies can operate. Using monthly surveys from the UK and Japan, we found that general factors such as education, overall levels of trust, and political ideology consistently shape people's trust towards these institutions. However, local contexts and particular international events strongly influence this trust as well. For example, when the WHO announced the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, trust in the organisation rose significantly in Japan, reflecting the country's alignment with global health guidelines, but this announcement had little impact in the UK, where the government highlighted domestic successes. Similarly, after the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel conflict, trust in the UN declined in the UK, likely due to perceptions of ineffectiveness, whereas it increased in Japan, matching Japan's longstanding commitment to multilateral cooperation. We also found that populist and right-wing political views consistently reduced trust in these organisations in both countries, particularly regarding the WHO. Our findings suggest that international organisations need to engage more closely with local narratives to build stronger public support.

• Martin Ejnar Hansen, Steven Pickering, Yosuke Sunahara, Atsushi Tago.

Trust and compliance

Project lead: Yosuke SUNAHARA

During the spread of the new coronavirus infection, a major challenge was whether people would take action to follow government directives, such as wearing masks and keeping social distance. Wearing masks is expected to be effective in preventing the spread of infection to others. It is not only an act of individual prevention of infection but also has the nature of a collective action. This study explores how factors that promote collective action, such as trust in others, and individual factors, such as the threat of infectious disease, influence compliance behavior using online survey data collected monthly in a national sample since July 2022.

Trust and Social Dominance Orientations

Project lead: Atsushi TAGO

Social dominance orientation (SDO) has been used extensively in international relations studies in recent years as a possible predictor of specific policy support tendencies. One such argument is that it predicts realism, for which data from the United States have been presented. This study will use data from Japan and the United Kingdom to see how effective SDOs are as a predictor of realism in non-U.S. contexts.

Government responses to COVID-19

Project lead: Naofumi FUJIMURA

How have governments responded to the COVID-19 pandemic? In governments, as policy-making authority is delegated to ministers, ministers play a central role in policymaking. Consequently, to understand how governments have made policy to respond to the pandemic, it is important to identify ministers’ positions on and policy conflict between ministers over the pandemic. Conducting a text analysis of cabinet ministers’ speeches in the Japanese Diet, we identify individual ministers’ policy positions on a dimension of economy vs. health.

Immigration and public opinion

Project leads: Riku KAWAKAMI and Thomas SCOTTO

Immigration is a contentious issue in both Japan and England, in part due to England's post-Brexit "points-based" system favoring highly skilled workers and Japan's traditionally restrictive migration policies. Yet the governments of both countries implicitly understand the need for immigrants to fill roles in various sectors, especially as demographic shifts pressure labour markets.

By developing a unique conjoint experiment, we explore preferences for immigrants across low and high skilled sectors and find surprisingly nuanced public attitude. English respondents show a greater variation in their preferences by job sector, particularly valuing immigrants in caring professions, likely reflecting the more vigorous and detailed public debate on immigration in Britain compared to Japan's more muted discussion.

Terrorism and political attitudes

Project lead: Naofumi FUJIMURA

In Japan, on July 8, 2022, two days before the House of Councillors election voting day, a terrorist attack occurred in which former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot and killed. We happened to be conducting an awareness survey of the general public from July 6 to 12, before and after the shooting. Using the data from this survey, we can conduct a natural experiment on the impact of terrorism on people's political attitudes by using the respondents before the shooting as the control group and those after the shooting as the treatment group.

Elections and political efficacy

Project lead: Yosuke SUNAHARA

Do people feel political efficacy more when elections are held? In Japan, many local governments hold elections concurrently during quadrennial unified local elections in April 8, 2023. However, there are some local governments that do not hold elections at the time. In this study, we conduct a survey on political efficacy in March and April to observe whether there is a difference in the sense of political efficacy between local residents that are involved in elections and those that are not.