Research in progress
Trust in Parliament: early findings
Authors:- Steve Pickering, Yosuke Sunahara, Thomas Scotto, Martin Ejnar Hansen, Dorothy Yen, Jason Reifler, Han Dorussen
- 22 February 2025
Key Findings
- Trust in Parliament strongly correlates with trust in Government (0.55).
- Right-leaning individuals exhibit significantly lower trust (-0.07, p < 0.001), even during a period of Conservative government.
- Older individuals, those with higher social grades, and those with higher education tend to trust Parliament more.
- Economic conditions and recent government events have limited overall effects on trust.
Political Events & Trust
- The mini-budget fiasco (Sept 2022) led to a sharp trust decline (-0.56, p < 0.001).
- Liz Truss’s resignation (Oct 2022) further reduced trust (-0.35, p < 0.001).
- Rishi Sunak’s tenure showed no significant trust shifts.
Subgroup Analysis
- Gender: Men trust Parliament less than women (-0.14, p < 0.001).
- Age: Younger respondents show greater variance in trust based on leadership changes.
- Region: Trust is highest in London but lower in the North and Midlands.
- Ethnicity: South Asians trust MPs more (0.26, p < 0.001), while Black respondents’ trust dropped significantly post-mini-budget.
Policy Implications
- Youth Engagement: Increase transparency to address skepticism.
- Regional Outreach: Improve engagement in the North and Midlands.
- Crisis Management: Stable messaging can mitigate trust declines.
Based on the above, we make the preliminary conclusion that strengthening constituency-level engagement and tailoring outreach to different demographics can help restore public trust in Parliament.
